FanDuel & DraftKings Week 13 NFL DFS Picks and Plays for GPP Tournament Contests.

FanDuel & DraftKings GPP Lineup Picks, Strategy & Advice for Week 13 NFL DFS Contests (12/3 – 12/7).

Written by: Marcel Ritchey & Matt Kupferle (@mkupferle)

Let’s take a few minutes to highlight GPP targets on FanDuel and DraftKings DFS platforms for Week 13 in the NFL…

Welcome to our GPP post! We here at Moxyball want to do our best to give you advice that could get you to the top of the rankings in those BIG tourneys every week.

We will be discussing different strategies and methods of attacking throughout the season to keep things fresh and exciting and possibly winning the big one we are all striving for. We will be following the lead that Vegas odds set out, as the house wins more than it loses.

So while playing GPPs, we should expect more losses than playing 50/50s and double ups, but will have better payouts when we do hit it big.

Our suggestion is to keep the GPP play to a minimal transaction limit to ensure minimal losses to the bankroll. In other words, don€™t go crazy and refer to playing it safe in cash games with the majority of your investments.

Each week Matt and I will share our choices not only for bragging rights, but to give our readers perspectives from multiple angles.

Let€™s get right into it.

Marcel’s Notes

QB – Osweiler has been the understudy to one of the greatest QBs in the game (Peyton Manning) for more than two years. Other QBs that have done the same such as Aaron Rodgers to Brett Favre, Tom Brady to Drew Bledsoe – showing that this is one way that a great QB can be made. Brock went out to beat the Patriots in a blizzard, and has thrown for over 250 yards in both contests (yes including in last night’s snow storm), but the stat that I love the most is the fact that when he faced a short and dried up secondary with the Kansas City Chiefs he managed 10 FD points in one quarter! This week he is facing the San Diego Chargers, a team we all know has allowed ridiculous amounts of yards to opposing QBs and have also allowed at least a minimum of 3 touchdowns or more in the past 6 games.

Brock will have a full arsenal with Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Vernon Davis and a run game that is starting to improve as well. Even better is the fact that Brock is only $6,900 on FD and all his fellow Broncos are very inexpensive. I can see this being the last week he plays as Peyton Manning should be back the following week, but given what I have seen you should seriously consider Brock in all avenues be it cash games and even for big tourney plays!

QB – Matt Hasselbeck has thrown multiple touchdowns three weeks in a row and is using ALL of his receiving corps available to him.  I also am considering Matt due to what could be a shootout playing against a high-octane offense in the Pittsburgh Steelers and he just might be able to keep up with Big Ben, but considerably cheaper, coming in at $6,500 on FD.  At that price his floor which is around 16.8 FD points has a very decent ceiling of 20 – 25 points, not a bad return on investment.

WR – T.Y. Hilton should have a great game especially the way that Matt Hasselbeck has played as of late, also noting the fact that according to Football Outsiders the Pittsburgh D ranks 19^th against the pass.  Keep in mind how bad Pittsburgh was lit-up last week by the middling Seahawks offense who had only a couple of pass catchers worth noting (Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham), not note that Hasselbeck has three great receiving options with aforementioned T.Y., Andre Johnson, and Donte Moncrief.  Hilton’s price tag is a decent $7,300 on FD allowing for a great receiver that has great chemistry with his QB (mentioned above).

WR – Odell Beckham should be the poster child for what a highlight reel of spectacular catches should be, can anyone say hall of famer?  Odell may or may not be facing the NY Jets infamous corner back Darelle Revis, but whether he is or isn’t he is still a great play this week.  The NY Jets have slowly been creeping up in the rankings from 1^st  to now ranked 5^th against the pass.  Also Keep in mind the Jets have allowed even with Revis, the Dolphins, Texans, and Jacksonville to score more than 20 points a game, and none of those teams mentioned have a great QB or receiver as good as OBJ.  Play with confidence!

WR – Eric Decker is the salt to Brandon Marshalls pepper.  He has been fantasy gold IMO all season long, and with Marshall taking the spotlight and the heat from opposing defenses Eric Decker has been racking up the touchdowns!  Ryan Fitzpatrick or  “Fitz-magic” has been getting better and better since his hand surgery, and this week facing a New York Giants team ranked 25^th against the pass using a week 12 DVOA according to Football Outsiders, makes Eric Decker a fantasy security blanket of points, as he is always consistent.

WR – A.J. Green  is my favorite play of the week.  Facing a Cleveland defense who was just man handled by Matt Schaub and no elite level receivers makes practically all of Cincinnati players a great option especially since Cleveland ranks 29^th using a DVOA grading system according to Football Outsiders, ( I love their weighted statistics broken down by rush and pass Defense (less work for me to do), I copy and paste into my own excel files and analyze looking for patterns of increasing or decreasing stats from week to week, then throw in grudge match probability factors, divisional games and confidence or lack there-of multipliers, and you have some great info from these guys).

Also keep in mind Giovani Bernard should have a great game against the 28^th worst rush defense in the league (According to Football Outsiders).  I also must state that when choosing a WR I try to pick from one who has not only a great matchup but also is being thrown the ball from a “Consistent signal caller”  Andy Dalton has been 66% consistent with his FD points and that’s why I LOVE A.J. Green, which should open plenty of holes as well for Giovani.

RB – Shaun Draughn. ALERT- (Before I get all kinds of flack please read the rest) he is facing the Chicago defense (who have played well, but I’m not sold on them being elite)  who ranks 31^st against the run from week 12 (According to Football Outsiders) and who fared no better week 11 or 10.  He is a sneaky play but consider the fact that Shaun Draughn has averaged 11.4 FD points playing against 3 very good defenses in Atlanta Rush D, Seattle Rush D. and then Arizona Rush D, now he is facing the almost the worst rush d as of late, this to me makes for a sneaky play, and if Shaun can get just 30 more yards that puts him almost at 15 FD points, or a TD which would put him at almost 17 FD points – Not a bad floor to ceiling ratio for only $5,900 on FD.  I love Shaun and he should allow for you to spend up on your other positions.

RB – Ronnie Hillman seems to have gained starting job duties.  Just announced that he will be the starter against the San Diego Chargers who are all but given up and plagued with injuries, are they playing for a first round pick?, one has to wonder.  I like Ronnie even though C.J. Anderson had a great game last week, this could very well  be a test for C.J. and of-coarse a chance for Ronnie to hold on to what he fought so hard for all year.  Either way both backs are probably decent choices but I am rolling with Ronnie.

TE – Jordan Reed by far seems to be the safest pick this week for me, not only for cash games but tourney plays as well.  Having the lead on your team for receptions makes for a great reason already but I love the fact that Kirk Cousins has been playing great and having multiple targets to choose from, for me, means that getting Jordan Reed the ball shouldn’t be that hard, when the opposing defense has to worry about DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and a run game that is starting to pick up steam as well.  I also love the fact that this is also a huge divisional game for Washington and they will be looking to play hard for their chance to go to the playoffs.

TE – Greg Olsen seems to be forgotten about in all the news stories, especially since Rob Gronkowski got hurt.  All I see are articles about Scott Chandler being the greatest play of the week.  Sometimes I think that as soon as one guy has a big game, or some hot new waiver wire pick is available everyone jumps on board, but I try to remain vigilant in the fact that the matchup is what’s most important, trying not to get caught up into the hype of a certain player, unless it’s warranted.  Keep in mind that Greg Olsen is now the reigning king of TE’s (Receptions, targets etc…) now that Gronk is out.

Matt’s Notes

Check back soon for Matt’s updates!

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